Hydropolitics in Central Asia: The Role of Water Security in Shaping Regional Stability
Keywords:
Hydropolitics, Water Security, Transboundary, Upstream, Downstream, Integration, StabilityAbstract
Water scarcity and competing resource demands among Central Asian states have turned transboundary water management into one of the region’s most persistent sources of tension and instability. The study aims to analyze the dynamics of hydropolitics in central Asia with a particular focus on the role of water security in shaping regional stability. The region’s geography is defined by two major transboundary rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, which create a structural interdependence between upstream and downstream states. Upstream states prioritize hydropower generation but downstream states depend heavily on irrigation for agriculture. This divergence of priorities has generated persistent tensions exacerbated by the absence of an effective regional water management framework following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The study applies the Regional Security Complex Theory to explain how the interdependence of riparian states makes water a regional rather than a purely national security issue. Case studies like the Aral Sea crisis, the Rogun Dam, and conflicts over the Toktogul and Kambarata projects illustrates the dual potential of water to fuel disputes or foster cooperation. The findings suggest that long-term stability in Central Asia depends on re-conceptualizing water as a shared regional interest and establishing cooperative mechanisms that align energy and agricultural needs. These platforms are essential to transform hydropolitics from a driver of conflict into a foundation for regional integration and stability.
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